Domestic Gold Surges to 134 Million VND/Tael: Warning Signal or Investment Opportunity?

The Divergence Between Two Markets

From the perspective of a trader who has monitored gold markets for years, I see domestic gold continuously surging to 134 million VND/tael while world gold turns down to $3,542.9/ounce as a noteworthy phenomenon. This divergence doesn't just reflect market sentiment but also shows the unique characteristics of Vietnam's gold market.

Looking back at my journey from losing $1000 in forex, I learned that when there's a large gap between international and domestic prices, it's usually a sign of deeper imbalances in supply-demand and investor psychology. Al Brooks once taught me about recognizing divergence patterns, and this is a very clear divergence.

Safe Haven Psychology in Unstable Context

Bob Volman once emphasized the importance of understanding the psychology behind each price movement. Major brands like SJC, DOJI, PNJ all adjusting upward by 500,000–900,000 VND/tael in one session shows strong buying pressure from domestic investors.

Luna, my ragdoll cat, when feeling uneasy usually seeks the most familiar and safe places. This is similar to Vietnamese investors' behavior when they rush into gold as a familiar safe haven channel amid market instability.

Analyzing Reasons for Price Gap

In TramNgo FX-Crypto Community, I often explain factors creating the gap between domestic and world gold prices. These factors include: import supply restrictions, related taxes and fees, transportation and storage costs, and especially Vietnamese psychology and investment habits.

When world gold falls but domestic gold still rises strongly, this shows domestic demand is very high, possibly far exceeding supply capacity from official channels.

Risks of Large Price Gaps