Weekend Gold: Breakout or Bull Trap? Insights from a 7-Year Trading Veteran

This weekend I was sitting checking gold charts when I noticed a familiar scene: domestic SJC gold prices were "dancing" out of sync with global market logic. From my 7 years of trading gold and forex, I see this as a moment requiring careful analysis - because usually during times like these, the market is preparing for a major move.

Today I'll dissect this weekend's gold developments through the lens of price action analysis and practical trading experience, while highlighting the signals that fellow traders need to watch.

Global Gold: High Consolidation or Preparing for Breakout?

Global gold prices this weekend stood at 3,339–3,351 USD/ounce - this is what Al Brooks would call a "high tight flag." From my analytical experience, when gold consolidates in this zone, it usually signals one of two scenarios:

Continuation pattern: Preparing for the next leg up

Exhaustion: Running out of upward momentum, preparing for correction

On the Comex exchange, August gold futures fluctuated between 3,323–3,344.6 USD/ounce. Converting to Vietnamese dong equals approximately 110.6 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees).

Notably, gold dropped slightly 0.5% from the weekly high due to USD recovery and positive US economic data. This is a signal that Bob Volman often mentions: "when the dollar strengthens, gold typically weakens" - but this time gold only declined slightly, showing demand remains very strong.

Domestic Gold: The Unusual "Premium" Story

SJC gold surged nearly 1 million VND/tael on July 18-19, currently at 120.6 million VND/tael in Ho Chi Minh City.

The "strange" point I observed:

Gold Type Buy Price Sell Price SJC 1-10 taels 118,600 120,600 SJC 5 chi 118,600 120,620 SJC 9999 rings 114,200 116,700-116,800 24K gold (jewelry) 114,200 116,100

The domestic-international gold price gap remains huge (~10-14 million VND/tael). From a trader's perspective, this is a massive arbitrage opportunity - but only feasible if you can "transport" gold between the two markets.

Technical Analysis: Reading Signals from Charts

Pattern Recognition

Looking at this week's gold chart, I see an ascending triangle forming:

• Support: 3,320-3,325 USD zone
• Resistance: 3,350-3,355 USD zone

From experience, ascending triangles are usually bullish continuation patterns - but need volume to confirm.

Sentiment Analysis

Current market sentiment is very interesting:

• Institutional money: Still accumulating gold
• Retail traders: Torn between FOMO and fear of buying the top
• Central banks: Continue buying gold to diversify reserves

Macro Factors

Macro factors "pushing" gold prices:

• US-EU-Mexico trade tensions may escalate
• Fed policy remains unclear