VN-Index breaks 1,400: after 3 years of waiting, Vietnam stocks "wake up" or just temporary "fever"?

Hey everyone! Tram here, sitting with my hot coffee and a screen full of green, can't help but smile. After more than 3 years of "hibernation," VN-Index finally broke through the psychological 1,400 mark at 1,402.06 points (+1.09%). Foreign investors bought net for the 6th consecutive session, liquidity exploded across the board - everything screams "bull market is back!"But with 7 years of experience "rolling around" in financial markets, I know that every euphoria moment needs careful analysis. Today let's "dissect" whether this is the beginning of a supercycle or just an extended dead cat bounce.

Market snapshot: "feast" after 3 years of drought

The "stunning" numbers

VN-Index breakthrough:

• 1,402.06 points (+1.09%) - breaking 1,400 after 3+ years
• Liquidity: exploding across the entire market
• Breadth: money flowing evenly across sectors
• Foreign flows: strong net buying for 6th consecutive session

Leading sectors:

• Banking: leading with institutional money flows
• Real estate: strong comeback
• Securities: benefiting from market rally
• Media: positive momentum

Pressured sectors:

• Exports: concerns about tariff wars
• Insurance: profit-taking after previous gains
• Tech-telecom: technical adjustment

Analysis using price action method

Applying what Al Brooks and Bob Volman taught me about market structure:Breakout characteristics:

• Volume confirmation: yes ✓ (liquidity explosion)
• Follow-through: being tested, need next 2-3 sessions
• Sector rotation: healthy ✓ (not dependent on 1-2 stocks)
• Foreign validation: yes ✓ (foreign net buying)

Pattern recognition: this is textbook range breakout after long accumulation phase. Very clean technical setup.

Why now? Fundamental drivers behind the rally

Catalyst #1: favorable macro environment

Domestic factors:

• Interest rates: downward trend creating good liquidity environment
• Inflation: under control, no monetary tightening pressure
• GDP growth: stable around 6-6.5%, attractive vs regional peers
• Currency stability: VND/USD stable, no depreciation pressure

Global factors:

• Fed pause: expectations of Fed stopping rate hikes
• China reopening impact: indirect benefit through trade
• EM allocation: fund flows returning to emerging markets

Catalyst #2: corporate earnings improvement

Banking sector fundamentals:

• Credit growth: increasing again after tight period
• NIM expansion: favorable interest rate environment
• Asset quality: improving after cleanup period
• Valuation: still attractive vs regional peers

Real estate recovery:

• Inventory clearance: decreased significantly
• Policy support: real estate credit support packages
• Pent-up demand: accumulated after 2 years of market freeze

Catalyst #3: foreign institutional interest

Why foreign money is returning:

• Attractive valuation: P/E around 13-14x vs regional 16-18x
• Policy stability: government pro-business stance
• Infrastructure development: major projects creating value
• ESG compliance: improving corporate governance

Personal insight: from recent trips to Singapore and Hong Kong, I see very high institutional interest in Vietnam equity. Many fund managers are allocating capital here.

Technical analysis: where are the next support and resistance levels?

Short-term technical picture

Immediate levels:

• Support: 1,380-1,390 (previous resistance becomes support)
• Current: 1,402 (fresh breakout zone)
• Resistance: 1,418-1,420 (next psychological level)
• Major resistance: 1,450-1,470 (2018 highs)

Warning indicators:

• RSI: >70 on daily chart (overbought territory)
• MACD: positive divergence but at high levels
• Volume: need to sustain at high levels for confirmation

Medium-term outlook

Bull case scenario:

• Target 1: 1,450 in Q3/2025
• Target 2: 1,500+ if macro environment remains supportive
• Timeline: 6-12 months for major uptrend

Bear case scenario:

• Failed breakout: retest 1,350-1,370
• Consolidation: range 1,350-1,420 for 3-6 months
• Risk factors: global recession, domestic policy changes

Sector analysis: who wins who loses in this bull market?

Top performers and reasons

Banking sector - "backbone" of the rally:

• VCB, BID, CTG: leading with strong fundamentals
• Why strong: credit growth recovery + NIM expansion
• Risk: stretched valuation, regulatory changes
• Strategy: selective picking, focus large caps

Real estate - "comeback kid":

• VHM, VIC, NVL: recovery from oversold levels
• Why strong: policy support + inventory clearance
• Risk: interest rate sensitivity, project execution
• Strategy: wait for pullbacks, focus developers with good land bank

Securities - "leveraged play" on market growth:

• SSI, VND, HCM: direct benefit from increased trading
• Why strong: commission income + proprietary trading gains
• Risk: market dependent, regulatory scrutiny