Gold week July 14-20: When the "royal metal" stands at a crossroads

Fellow traders, while Bitcoin is "soaring" around $118k, gold is also showing quite interesting movements! International gold prices are currently around $3,350-3,360/ounce - the highest in 3 weeks. But this week could be the "decisive" week for gold trends as a series of important economic data is about to be released.Today I want to share insights on opportunities and risks for gold in the coming week, as well as appropriate trading strategies.

Market status: Gold is "hesitating"

Current price action

International gold: $3,350-3,360/ounce - slight increase from end of last week SJC gold: 119.5-121.5 million VND/tael - 14-15 million gap with international pricesFrom technical perspective: Gold is in consolidation pattern after strong rally. Price action shows:

• Higher lows: Bottoms getting progressively higher
• Range bound: Oscillating in narrow $3,330-3,370 range
• Volume declining: Lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers
• Indecision: Market waiting for new catalyst

Bob Volman once taught: "Consolidation after strong moves usually precedes bigger moves." The question is: up or down?

Comparison with other assets

While:

• Bitcoin: Parabolic at $118k (+180% YTD)
• US stocks: S&P 500 hitting new highs (+24% YTD)
• USD Index: Strong at 106.5 (+8% YTD)

Gold: Only +12% YTD - underperforming vs risk assetsInsight: Gold is "lagging behind" due to:

Risk-on sentiment: Investors favor risk assets

USD strength: Strong dollar pressuring gold

Real yields: Real interest rates still positive, competing with gold

The "decisive" week: Events that will determine the trend

"Hot" economic calendar

Tuesday (15/7):

• US CPI June: Forecast 3.1% vs 3.3% prior
• Core CPI: Forecast 3.4% vs 3.4% prior

Wednesday (16/7):

• US PPI: Producer Price Index - upstream inflation indicator
• Retail Sales: Reflecting consumer health

Thursday (17/7):

• Jobless Claims: Unemployment benefit applications
• Industrial Production: Manufacturing index

Friday (18/7):

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Consumer psychology
• Fed Beige Book: Economic report from 12 Fed Districts

Scenarios by data release

Scenario 1: CPI below forecast (<3.1%)

• Impact: Bullish for gold
• Logic: Falling inflation → Fed may be dovish → Weak USD → Gold rises
• Target: $3,400-3,450

Scenario 2: CPI above forecast (>3.2%)

• Impact: Bearish for gold
• Logic: Rising inflation → Fed hawkish → Strong USD → Gold falls
• Target: $3,280-3,320

Scenario 3: CPI meets forecast (3.1%)

• Impact: Neutral
• Logic: No surprise → Continuation of current trend
• Target: Range $3,330-3,370

Money flow analysis: What is "smart money" doing?

Central banks still "actively" buying gold

Q1 2025 data:

• Net purchases: 290 tons gold (highest in 10 quarters)
• Top buyers: China (+60 tons), India (+40 tons), Turkey (+25 tons)
• US reserves: Down to 90-year low (8,133 tons)

Why are central banks buying gold?

Diversification: Reduce USD dependence

Inflation hedge: Protect purchasing power

Geopolitical hedge: Safe haven in uncertainty

Reserve rebalancing: From USD to hard assets

Institutional flows show mixed signals

Recent ETF flows:

• GLD: Outflow -2.1 tons last week
• IAU: Outflow -1.3 tons
• SGOL: Inflow +0.8 tons (smaller fund)

Interpretation:

• Retail/small institutions: Taking profits
• Large institutions: Mixed sentiment
• Professional money: Waiting for clearer direction

Positioning data from futures market

CFTC Commitment of Traders:

• Large speculators: Net long down 15% vs last month
• Commercial hedgers: Net short up 8%
• Small traders: Net long up 22% (retail FOMO)

Insight: Professional money being cautious, retail still bullish

Geopolitical backdrop: "Safe haven demand" still present

Trade war escalation

US-China tensions:

• New tariffs on technology goods
• Restrictions on semiconductor exports
• Technology transfer limitations

US-Canada trade dispute: