Asia Markets Week Ahead – June 23-27, 2025

By: Oliver Barclay

Executive Summary

Week's Key Theme: Middle East geopolitical escalation meets critical US inflation data, creating a volatile backdrop for Asia-Pacific markets already grappling with energy import vulnerabilities.

Top 3 Catalysts: US Core PCE inflation data (Friday) will signal Fed policy direction; Israel-Iran conflict threatens oil supply disruptions with Brent above $76; China's industrial profits (expected late-month) could determine regional sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions.

Market Bias: Risk-off sentiment dominates early week on geopolitical tensions, with potential reversal contingent on benign US inflation data and Middle East de-escalation.

Vietnam Context: VN-Index at 1,317.46 shows resilience near key psychological support at 1,300, though foreign capital flight risks and oil price pressures create near-term headwinds for the energy-import dependent economy.

Critical Events Calendar

Monday-Tuesday Focus Monday opens with heightened volatility as Asian futures signal declines following weekend Israel-Iran escalation. S&P PMI Manufacturing/Services (9:45 a.m. ET Monday) will gauge US economic resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty. Germany's Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday) adds European context to global sentiment. China's Summer Davos Forum begins Tuesday (June 24-26), potentially yielding policy signals affecting regional trade flows. Vietnam's energy-dependent economy faces immediate pressure as Brent crude hovers above $76.99, threatening the import bill for manufacturing sectors.

Mid-Week Catalysts Wednesday features US Building Permits (8:00 a.m. ET) providing housing sector insights alongside potential corporate earnings updates. Thursday brings key US economic data including potential Q1 GDP revision and Durable Goods reports that will confirm economic momentum. Taiwan's industrial production data serves as a proxy for broader Asia-Pacific manufacturing health. Any escalation in Middle East tensions during this period could trigger coordinated central bank intervention discussions across the region.